On September 1, Seven governement including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, the General Administration of Financial Supervision and the National Energy Administration, jointly released the <Work Plan for the steady Growth of the Automotive Industry (2023-2024)>. The plan proposes that in 2023, the auto industry will maintain a stable and good development trend, and the annual car sales are expected to reach about 27 million, yoy growth rate reach 3%, of which the sales of EV will reach arround 9 million, yoy growth rate reach 30%.
Data show that from January to August, the production and sales of EV were 5.434 million and 5.374 million, respectively, with YoY growth rate 36.9% and 39.2%. In August, the production and sales of EV was 843,000 and 846,000, respectively, with MoM growth rate 4.7% and 8.5%.
According to the plan, if the market wanted to complete the target sale, the sale of EV would need to reach 3.63 million from September to December.
1) Lithium battery production is expected to rise by about 8% in October
On the basis of Dadong Times (TD) survey, in September, battery manufacturer output (EV + energy storage battery) reached 73.62GWh, and it would reach 79.5Gwh in Oct, with mom growth rate 8%; The output of battery manufacturer A is expected to reach 40GWh, battery manufacturer B is expected to reach 18.5GWh, and lbattery manufacturer C is expected to reach 7GWh.
Dadong Times (TD) consider that the leading battery manufacturer's output would increase, the operating rate is increasing since the end of September, the market demand is picking up, and the battery's raw material industry's operating rate is currently expected to reach 70%.
2) lithium carbonate prices may remain stable in short term
At the end of September, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 163,000-179,000 yuan/ton, and industrial grade lithium carbonate was 152,000-164,000 yuan/ton, and its price still maintained a downward trend. 1) On the demand side, the supply of lithium carbonate is sufficient, the demand is still weak, and the inventory levels maintaind stable. Due to the weak demand, the price of lithium carbonate lacks strong support. 2) On the supply side, from October to December, salt lake's lithium carbonate output would decline because of seasonal fluctuations. On the demand side, the EV battery manufacturer is expected to replenish its inventory in October, and lithium carbonate demand is expected to increase slightly in October; However, in the context of oversupply, the price of lithium carbonate is difficult to rebound significantly.
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